MSR’s Looking Back, Looking Ahead: The Giants’ “Odd Years”

While the Giants are charmed in even years (left), they watch teams like the Diamondbacks (right) win playoff spots at their expense, in odd years.

2010. 2012. 2014. The San Francisco Giants earned the title “World Champions.”

Those years in between? Not so much.

Since 2009, odd-numbered years have not been as kind to the Orange-and-black than even-numbered years have. It’s gotten to the point that many, those on the outside looking in as well as within the fanbase, believe that the Giants are charmed only on even years – “Wait till 2016”, I’ve seen baseball fans say many a time since the end of the 2014 MLB season.

However, there has been more to years ending with an odd number than a simple “sports curse” could simply explain away. After all, this pattern didn’t begin until after the Giants won their first World Series – and subsequent championships were, in their own unique ways, somewhat unexpected.

Despite winning the NL West crown with ease, the 2012 Giants were far from invincible in the National League playoffs. After all, they were forced to come back from two-game deficits to the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals – the former by winning three straight at Great American Ballpark – in order to advance. While they made history by winning five straight elimination games, one slip-up could have easily ended their season with a whimper.

And Marco Scutaro rejoiced in the rain.

The 2014 Giants didn’t have it any easier, starting each of their playoff rounds on the road as the second NL Wild Card team. And many can agree that, if it wasn’t for Madison Bumgarner’s epic World Series performance, the Commissioner’s trophy would have resided in Kansas City for only the second time in their franchise’s history.

But what led to the lulls during years in between those championships? And what of the year leading up to their first World Series title in 52 years? Perhaps a look back could provide a better explanation for the “every-other-year” pattern these Giants teams have employed for the past five years.

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LOOKING BACK

2009: Before The Dynasty

It should be noted that these Giants were without the likes of Buster Posey and Aubrey Huff, both of which played key roles in the 2010 World Series run. It was manager Bruce Bochy’s third year at the helm, and at this point in his career, he was surely not the future Hall of Famer we recognize him as today – having come off of back-to-back seasons of 72 wins or less, he was still learning how to deal with a talented pitching staff and a lineup not known for power hitting.

Bochy did have the benefit of having a Cy Young-caliber Tim Lincecum, who was destined to win his second straight award in 2009. He also had two more former Cy Young winners on staff: Barry Zito, who was still searching for the Cy Young form he possessed in Oakland; and Randy Johnson, who, at 45 years old, still had a bit left in the tank. Pitching was their obvious strength – Lincecum and Matt Cain both made the All-Star Game that year, and Jonathan Sanchez showed his stuff by no-hitting the San Diego Padres that year. Furthermore, Pablo Sandoval was coming into his own as the reliable power hitter Giants fans were looking for.

Tim Lincecum was considered one of the best pitchers – if not the best – after another Cy Young season in 2009.

However, despite the success the pitching staff had, finishing the season tied for the fewest runs allowed in the league (611), the offense let the Giants down in the end, ranking 25th in runs scored (657). It was a problem the Giants in recent years, ranking near the bottom of the league in runs scored just about every year since 2004. While finishing at a respectable 88-74, they missed the playoffs with a third-place finish in the NL West. They had the pitching to compete – but not the runs to back them up.

2011: An Ill-Advised Trade, and a Never-ending Injury Bug

The funny thing about this team was that, despite all of the hardship they had to endure, the Giants were still at 61-44 on July 28 of that year – more than two months after losing Rookie of the Year Buster Posey to a devastating ankle injury – clinging to a slim lead in the NL West lead over the surprising Arizona Diamondbacks. General Manager Brian Sabean also pulled off a trade deadline deal that brought the team a big bat in RF Carlos Beltran (despite sacrificing top pitching prospect Zach Wheeler).

Strangely enough, it was the trade, and not the devastating injury, that ultimately became the straw that broke this Giant camel’s back.

Apparently, this was the face of impending doom in 2011.

While relying on a stellar pitching staff that made a big difference in ERA (3.20 – second-best in the majors), but not so much in starters’ combined record (55-52), the offense continued to be their Achilles’ Heel. Losing Rookie of the Year Buster Posey to a gruesome ankle injury via home plate collision in May, and No. 2 hitter Freddy Sanchez to season-ending surgery in August certainly didn’t help matters. But after that fateful trade in July, the Giants went 11-21 through the end of August.

The diamond in the rough at the end of that season? SP Ryan Vogelsong, who replaced Barry Zito in the rotation in April. In his second stint with the team that drafted him, Vogey proceeded to have a Renaissance year (13-7, 2.71 ERA) that landed him a spot at that year’s All-Star Game. It wasn’t enough, however, to help the Giants get to the postseason, as they were eliminated from contention by the Diamondbacks in late September. It was a team that was bitten hard by the injury bug throughout the season – a series of injuries that ultimately did them in.

2013: A Perfect Storm of Unfortunate Circumstances

Much like the 2011 team, the Giants of 2013 had a decent enough start to their championship defense campaign. They were at a respectable 29-25 at the end of May, and were even 8 games over .500 on May 12 (23-15). Then, the wheels fell off. They ended up going 10-17 in the month of June, and never saw the right side of .500 after June 24.

“… F.”

You could blame the slow implosion on a number of things. We can look at the starting lineup, none of which batted over .300 in 2013. The offense, as a whole, was 21st in total runs scored (629) and 22nd in total RBIs (596). And, honestly, that probably would have been fine if their defensive prowess – one of the main reasons they won in 2012 – didn’t suddenly leave them. The team committed a total of 107 errors throughout the 2013 season, good for 24th in the league. Granted, they committed 115 in 2012, but their offense at least made up for it.

But the most significant culprits were likely untimely injuries and bad starting pitching. It certainly didn’t help that CF Angel Pagan only played in 71 games in 2013. He was a spark at the leadoff position, and was a reliable defensive player when he was on the field. But an injury to his hamstring in June put him out of commission for the rest of the season. His absence showed in an overall offensive dropoff.

“I can’t catch a friggin’ break.”

Additionally, Ryan Vogelsong – who came up huge in the 2012 postseason – struggled throughout the 2013 season. Mixed in with a broken finger that kept him out of commission for 12 weeks between May and August, Vogey finished with a 4-6 record and a 5.73 ERA – up two full runs from 2012. Then there were prolonged injuries to bullpen mainstays Jeremy Affeldt and Santiago Casilla, a jarring blow to a unit that was under-appreciated in the Giants’ World Series titles in 2010 and 2012.

Ultimately, the starting pitching didn’t show up, for the most part, the entire season. Of the five Giants starters in the regular rotation, only Madison Bumgarner (13-9) posted a record over .500 and an ERA under 3.00. The other four (Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Vogelsong) combined for a 27-41 record, while all managed an ERA of 4.00 or over.  While they surged late in the season, the team was dead in the water by the end of August.

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LOOKING AHEAD

The 2015 season begins on Monday, and one thing is for sure: this year’s Giants team isn’t going to be mistaken for a power-hitting club. After all, two of their main power hitters from 2014 – 3B Pablo Sandoval and LF Michael Morse – left in free agency.

Gotdangit.

Another power hitter – RF Hunter Pence – went to the bench for two months with a broken forearm. That essentially leaves C Buster Posey, 1B Brandon Belt and a bevy of small-ball hitters. It’s gotten to a point where Bochy expressed concern about the team moving forward [ESPN Insider Required].

On top of that, the rotation is still a big question mark after Madison Bumgarner, despite my shows of optimism. Matt Cain is coming off season-ending surgery; Tim Lincecum is still trying to find the form he had five years ago; Jake Peavy’s last meaningful start produced a blowout loss in Game 6 of the World Series; and Tim Hudson is essentially on his last legs, on the final year of his current contract and turning 40 in July.

And, lest we forget, the list of misses in free agency over the last four months – almost every rumor involving a free agent and the Giants flamed out before a deal could be made. That would have been bad enough, if the Dodgers still didn’t have MVP and Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw, and the Padres didn’t make a complete offensive overhaul that will be sure to compete in the division.

Uh-oh.

Spring Training hasn’t been too encouraging, either – as of today, the Giants are 11-21 in the Cactus League standings (good for last place), and have been outscored by 48 runs. Granted, the team is still figuring out what they have, but, all in all, it’s not really promising with the regular season mere days away.

So, will the Giants continue this trend of missing the postseason on odd years?

Not necessarily. After all, this offense could surprise like it did in 2014, and if the rotation can come back to form from previous years, they always have a chance to contend in the NL West. The thing about question marks is that they aren’t automatically negatives. Question marks can pleasantly surprise just as much as it can disappoint. Things may not look promising right now, but things could be different come June and July.

Ultimately, the “odd year lull” is an odd trend to see with the Giants. Why not break it in 2015?