Chicago Cubs Prediction Revisited: An MSR Special

Posted on April 10, 2014 by Paulo C in Baseball, MLB // 0 Comments

In 2005, I made a prediction that the Chicago Cubs would break their Billy Goat Curse this year. Is there any chance I could be right?

Allow me to take you back to nine years ago, when the Macho Sports Report was in its relative infancy, and I had just watched the Chicago White Sox win the World Series.

I was a somewhat ignorant 21-year-old only beginning to get into baseball as a game, and with an understanding of baseball history – and a thing about numbers and patterns.

And, if you remember, at that time in baseball history, two franchises got their “Baseball Curse” monkeys off of their backs: In 2004, the Boston Red Sox made their memorable run – including an epic comeback from a 0-3 series deficit to the New York Yankees – to their first World Series title in 86 years. Since then, they have had two more world championships (2007, 2013), proving to be a mainstay power in the American League.

Fast forward to 2005, and the Chicago White Sox struck what was seemingly lightning in a bottle, after a 99-win season, to win their first World Series in 88 years. Since then, however, the Southsiders have only been able to make it back to the playoffs once (2008), where they lost in the ALDS. Currently, they are recovering from a 99-loss season in 2013, in their third year under manager Robin Ventura.

After that, there was unofficial media (and internet) buzz that maybe – just maybe – with two of the most cursed teams in Major League Baseball finally getting their due, perhaps the most famous cursed team of all – the Chicago Cubs – could win it all in 2006.

It was then when I noticed a beautiful symmetry of both the Red Sox and White Sox, and the times in which they broke their respective curses. Before their 2004 title, the last time the Red Sox won the World Series was in 1918. Before their 2005 title, the last time the White Sox won the World Series was 1917.

If the pattern were to hold true for the most famous cursed team of all, and their last World Championship was in 1908 …

“Factor in OPS and ERA … carry the two …”

… I made a prediction, then and there, in an article on my blog, that the Cubs would not win the World Series in 2006. Nay, they would win it all in 2014 – 106 years after their last title.

It was a “bold” prediction based elementary mathematical symmetrics. But I also backed up the prediction with some educated conjecture. After all, the Cubs were three years removed from blowing a 3-1 NLCS lead, falling to the eventual World Series Champion Florida Marlins in 7 games. I figured that, with a few more manager and GM regimes within the Cubs organization, it would have been more than enough time for the team to come together as a contender in the National League.

Well, fast-forward to this year – 2014. I can’t say I was completely wrong.

While they bottomed out to last place in 2006, they reached the playoffs under Dusty Baker in 2007 and 2008. Unfortunately, they did not get past the NLDS – let alone won a game in the postseason – in either campaign. After 2009, the Cubs would go on to play well below .500 (with a 5th-place finish) in each of the next four years.

So much for my theory on progressive improvement.

“Gotdangit … Alright, let me handle this.”

I can say this much, though – while the last three years have been deplorable (71-91 in 2011; 61-101 in 2012; 66-96 in 2013), there is still hope, in some circles, for the franchise to reach a respectable record within the 75 to 80-win range. While they have started the season 2-5 (as of April 8), they have a pitching staff that may prove difficult to handle as the season wears on, with four pitchers, led by Jeff Samardizja, representing a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of +2.0.

And, lest we forget, GM Theo Epstein (who put together the 2004 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox) is still working whatever magic he has left for a Cubs team with a long history of mediocrity.

So, most likely, I’m wrong on my prediction on a World Series for the NorthSiders this year. But, hey – there’s always the 2015 season, where they could build off of whatever success they garner in 2014, and, maybe …